Firin' up the hot stove...

All right I finally sat down to talk about some of the possible off-season happenings for this winter.

- To start off, although i didn't include him in the post below, once the Mets decline the option on Al Leiter (they have until Monday) he will become a free agent and would definently be included in the group below. If i could go back and change things i would Put Leiter as heading to the Yankees and David Wells would be heading somewhere else, either Texas or Philly.

- These are the guys i expect to resign with thie clubs for various reasons: Pedro Martinez, Jason Varitek, Brad Radke, J.D. Drew, Russ Ortiz, Jared Wright, Odalis Perez, Adrian Beltre, Jeff Kent(even though i predicted him to go to the Yankees), Woody Williams, Kevin Millwood (in another arbitration hearing), and Todd Walker.

- Carlos Beltran. The rumors all year have been him heading to the Yankees but i feel that they have bigger pitching needs right now as well as determining what's going to happen at 1B with the possibility that Jason Giambi will not be okay to play everyday next season, not to mention that they already have 3 outfielders under contract through next season and the man standing in Beltrans way, Bernie Williams, makes $12 million this season. Unless Bernie decides to quit and give his jazz guitar carrer full-time status, i don't think Beltran will be heading there. I believe that this is going to come down to the Angels and the Cubs, with the Cubs winning out in the end. The Cubs have a spectacular staff as well as some younger guys in place (patterson, lee, ramirez, barrett) and this will allow them to compete for the NL pennent for years to come.

- Adrian Beltre. I actually would kind of feel bad for this guy if he wasn't already a millionaire and soon to be $100 millionaire. He had one of the greatest years a 3B has ever had in the history of the game, plus he would be the gold glove winner every year if Scott Rolen wasn't in the league, yet Beltre will have few if any options for teams to sign with this offseason, unless he wants to play for way under market value. Every Major market team is set at the 3B position; Arod for the Yankees; David Wright with the Mets; the Cubs have Aramis Ramirez; the White Sox seem to be happy sticking with Joe Crede to see if he pans out, plus they dont want to act like a team in the 3rd largest market in the country by keeping thier $65 million payroll; and St.Louis has the previously mentioned Rolen. Plus many of the other clubs are set at 3B as well. The only realistic options Beltre has are coming back to LA; going to Baltimore; going to Detroit; or going to Boston (where there is a strong rumor of them making a run at Troy Glaus). No matter what he does he wont have the big market teams there bidding to drive up the price, which means he could be signed for less than his market value this offseason.

- The Closers. Let it be heard here first, the cubs will waste money on Troy Percival this offseason. They might get one good season out of him, and if they win a world series that's all that they'll need, but if they give him anything more than a 2yr deal they will get burned on it (on might get burned if they sign him period). The best closer on the market is Armando Benitez, who has basically closed out returning to the Marlins with comments made recently. Cleveland, looking to spend big on a closer, will be in the lead for his services. With a decent closer last year Cleveland would have easily taken 2nd place in the central and might have competed for the division crown with Minnesota.

- The Shortstops. Well there are a lot of them on the market, its a good thing that there are even more teams looking for guys at those positions. We'll start with Edgar Renteria, who i believe will either end up back in St. Louis or with the Cubs. He will be the guy that commands the longest and most expensive contract this offseason for SS's and those are the two teams that want him the most. The Cubs are also expected to make a run at Orlando Cabrera if they cannot get Renteria, and if they cannot get Caberera, they'll look at bringing back Nomar Garciaparra, who is an interesting case. After he was hit in the wrist 3 years ago he has never been the same player, in all facets of the game. He's been pining to move closer to his home-state California and it just so happens that the angels and dodgers have both expressed interest in signing him. My guess is here that he will either go to one of those two teams if the Cubs get one of the two men they want ahead of him, or if the Cubs dont get them he will come back to Chicago. Either route the best he will get is a one year deal with major incentives and option years. Too bad that he was 'insulted' at the 4 yr/$60 million extension he was offered two spring trainings ago. Even the one he was offered last spring at $12 million a year would still be nice compared to what he will wind up getting this winter. And finally, Omar Vizquel. Although he is a bit older, he can still hit and play stellar D, and the White Sox are still the odds-on favorite to sign him this offseason.

- Magglio Ordonez. The good news is he can hit 35 home runs and drive in 100 runs easily while playing solid defense in the outfield. The bad news, he was supposedly diagnosed with the same blood disorder which caused Bo Jackson to have blood flow eventually stopped from reaching his hip bone causing a major hip replacement surgery. The okay news is that the problem is centered in his knee and not as severe as Jackson's, thus it shouldn't be as big as a problem and with some luck, no problem at all. The Mets and Orioles are gonna be the final two players in this derby and the severity of the Mets interests come down to what they can do with some upcoming trades this offseason.

- Richie Sexson. Him going to the Mariners has been rumored as all but a signing of the contract away from happening for the past few days. The Mets might also try to make a late push but i would count on him going to Seattle.

- Corey Koskie. A native of Canada I wouldn't be surprised to see him head out to Toronto this offseason. They have a void at 3B and can use some of the Carlos Delgado money to sign him.

- One last guy that could very well be the offseason pickup of the year by whoever gets him will be Robb Nen, the former closer of the Giants. Nen hasn't pitched since the world series in 2002 due to shoulder problems and he appears to be close to returning if not by the beggining of next season, then soon after. Some team is going to take a flier on him and sign him to a minor league deal with incentives and if he returns to anything near what he was the 10 years prior to his injury he will be a great cheap pickup for some team this year.

Some more on possible trades this offseason to come when i get more time. The free agent madness starts this thursday, november 11th at midnight.....stay tuned.