Money Talks....

And lets get this straight, that is the only reason why OF Carlos Beltran will be playing in Queens next season. It wasn't because of a no-trade clause the Astros wouldn't give him. It wasn't because the Mets signed Pedro Martinez. It definently wasn't because the Mets play in a good stadium and is a young up-and-coming team. It was because the Mets gave him 20 million more reasons to play in New York for the next 7 years. Here are some contract details of the 7 yr/$119 million deal that Beltran inked with the Mets the other day, and i must say I was surprised at the $34 million in deferred money that is part of the contract. But this deal has a stink to it, and even though I don't particularly like the Astros, they got played like fiddles in this deal. By all accounts it appears that real negotiations between Boras and Astros owner Drayton McClane didn't begin until less than 6 hours were left before the deadline to sign him, and this was done because Boras refused to start negotiating until then. If Beltran really wanted to stay in Houston, or if Boras was going to really let him even go there, would negotiations begin so close to a deadline in which there would be no possible way that everything could be worked out before it passed? Probably not. If he really wanted to come back to Houston would he have had his agent spring a bunch of minute details at the last second to hold up talks? Again, probably not. But in the end Boras did what Boras does best, playing all the sides involved to get much more money from one team compared to the others involved in the deal. He even made a fake offer to the Yankees to try and draw them into the talks and push up the Mets bid even more, saying Beltran would play for them if he got a 6yr/$100 million offer from the Bombers. It didn't work in raising the Mets offer, but Boras still got the extra money he was hoping for.

Beltran said and did all the right things to make this progress during the offseason. When talking to a reporter from Houston while working-out in the days leading up to the Saturday deadline he said, "I Definently want to play for a contender, thats important to me." And when asked by the reporter if they should stick around in Houston for the deadline he quipped, " That might be a good idea." You heard stories on how much his wife loved being in Houston. You heard all the stories about how Beltran had old school qualities of loyalty, family, and the such - and that re-signing in Houston was a forgone conclusion. Was is possible that he was doing these things knowing that McClane Wouldn't go higher than $100 million to keep him, and that he was forcing other teams that wanted him into throwing more money his way in order to "influence" him to leave Houston for someone else? This is what I believe the plan of attack was for Boras/Beltran this offseason, and they found a sucker in the Mets - a team that decided to spend like crazy in preparation for their new cable network in New York next season, ala the Yankees YES network. I don't buy the argument that Beltran really wanted to go back to Houston and Boras did what he wanted anyway, because if that happened Scott Boras wouldn't be Beltran's agent today.

And why weren't the Cubs more seriously interested in these happenings? I'm gonna take a look at this from both sides, the rational view, and an upset Cub fans view. Then I'm gonna write my opinion on what will happen to Beltran and Mets in the upcoming years.

Rational view: There are couple things in play here. Did Carlos Beltran ever have any serious interest in actually coming to Chicago or was it another play by Boras to try and drag in another bidder? I really think that this was the play here as well as Hendry sticking to his guns on what Beltran could potentially be worth. Looking at it rationally, is Beltran a $17 million a year player? No. Could he someday turn into one? Possibly. Did Jim Hendry think it was likely? Probably not based on his interest in Beltran on the open market. Reports vary as to whether the Cubs actually offered Beltran parameters on a 5yr/$75 million deal or a 6yr/$90 million deal, but either way those bids were way to low to nab the CF in this market. Some reasons for not signing Beltran to that deal: He has always preferred to hit in the no.2 spot in the lineup as opposed to no.3 or 4 - is paying that much money for a no.2 hitter really that wise? Despite a high range factor for CF's, Beltran has always been near the top of the list of most errors for CF's every season. Was his .258 avg last season while playing in the NL an anomaly or will it be the norm. He has only had two seasons of a batting average above .300 with a high of .307. Speaking of avg. He seems to have one good season batting avg followed by a season of a bad one, look at his career patterns. He never hit more than 29 HR's till last season, when he hit 38, but saw his avg drop 20 points below his career numbers. He has also never had more than 108 RBI's in one year. Did Jim Hendry look at these things and decide that it wasn't worth the risk of seeing whether Beltran could turn into a $17 million player? Did it turn out that Beltran wasn't seriously considering coming to the Friendly Confines in the first place? It would seem that a combination of those two came into play in this decision.

Upset Cubs fan: How in the hell can you not sign Beltran this offseason. Beltran is a potential 5-tool player and has already show 4 of those tools regularly. Starting with defense, Beltran has one of the highest range factors in the league and would be able to regularly cut off those balls to the gap that have killed many games for the Cubs over the years. Combined with moving Patterson to LF, they would have almost the entire OF covered to makeup for Sosa's lack of mobility and defensive skills in RF. He has increased his SB totals each of the last 4 seasons to 42 last year, while swiping them at an amazing rate of nearly 91%. He has increased his walk totals, something the Cubs desperately lack in, the last 5 seasons to 92, while his strikeout rate is way down from his first four seasons in the majors. His slugging and OPS percentage has gone up each of the last three years. If you don't sign Beltran this year and lose Sosa next season (not to mention the fact another OF is still needed for this season) minor leaguers Felix Pie and Ryan Harvey won't be ready for at least another couple years and Brian Dopirak still needs to be converted into an OF, and all still haven't played significant time above the 'A' level. And since you have no one ready in the minors to take over a spot here's the list of free agent OF's for next season: Jose Guillen, Tim Salmon, Johnny Damon, Carl Everett, Carlos Lee, Bobby Higgenson, Rondell White, Terrence Long, Kenny Lofton, Bernie Williams, Randy Winn, Jose Cruz, Preston Wilson, Juan Pierre, Jeff Conine, Craig Biggio, Reggie Sanders, Larry Walker, Brian Giles, and Jay Payton. Some of these guys will resign with their teams and some will retire, taking more than a few off the list. Some of these guys aren't even worth signing, and the ones that are aren't in the same league as Carlos Beltran (or Sosa for that matter). This is a pretty lackluster list of guys to fill the spot for next season - so why not fill your need this season. And finally he is 27 years old and is just entering the prime years of his career. The Tribune company has more than enough money to sign Beltran and bump the payroll well over $100 million. The company made a sizeable profit last season after having the payroll reach nearly the $100 million mark, yet the team is now adding revenue from more $250 seats down the RF line, getting a reported $3 million for the ads going on the wall behind home plate next year, as well as starting their own cable network with the three other major sports teams not associated with the NFL. That's right, the same reason why the Mets said they were able to go out and get Beltran (their own new cable network) is something the Cubs will have starting next season as well, YET THEY HAVE NOT RAISED THE PAYROLL. I'm sorry but if you're gonna gouge more money for seats, deface Wrigley by adding signs, and start your own cable company (even a 25% share is huge profit) and not re-invest it into the teams the fans support, thats just low-down and dirty dealings right there. People shouldn't stand for it and shouldn't have to. Now the team will only have the options of trading for someone or throwing money at weak players in next years free agent class to improve the team, and I for one do not like the way things are going.

What I think will happen during the length of the contract: I think Beltran will continue to bat around .280-.300 with 30-35 HR's and around 100 RBI each year, but his SB numbers will go down from here on out since New York will try to turn him into a middle of the lineup hitter and not a no.2 man. The defense in CF will remain the same but it will actually hurt the team as a whole as the previous CF Mike Cameron has a bigger range factor and zone factor - aka covers more ground and gets to more baseballs than Beltran. If they both stayed in the OF of New York it might work out, but in one of the funniest developments in my opinion, Cameron, who when initially approached by Mets GM Omar Minaya about moving to RF if Beltran was signed said it was okay, has decided against it since the signing and wants out of town. I guess Cameron though that the Mets had no shot at getting him and just agreed to it without thinking it could actually happen, well now it did and he is not to happy. This leaves Minaya with a LF that he dislikes (Cliff Floyd) and a displaced CF that wants out(Cameron). This signing also doesn't address the fact that the Mets had serious offensive problems last season with the highest batting average on the team .272 by Kaz Matsui, who was considered a disappointment, while Cameron, who wants out, led the team is every other major category. I think that after a few years of typical production from Beltran, and a few years of losing, Beltran will be begging his way out of town to join a real contender and Omar Minaya will have to practically give him away with his huge backloaded deal. Remember, the Mets could arguably have been the fourth preference of Beltrans on where to play this summer, but if he really wanted to play for a contender and wasn't just taking the money Beltran would have done one of three things: resign with Houston right away and force them to bring everyone back, sign with the Yankees, or sign with the Cubs. Notice how signing with the Mets is not an option there. They have no bullpen to bridge the gap to closer Brandon Looper from their rotation of 6 maybe 7 inning starters. Their offense stinks. Yes they signed Pedro, but it is likely that he will not be close to what he used to be, if he doesn't seriously injure himself in the next year or two. As for the rest of the rotation, they have two aging starters in Tom Glavine and Steve Tracshel who won't be there in a year or two, and two other starters that are 30 already in Kris Benson and Victor Zambrano who won't be getting any better than the no.4 starters they are. They don't have any good starters in the minors either since they traded them away to get Benson and Zambrano. Catcher Mike Piazza and OF Cliff Floyd are aging and cannot produce offensively or defensively beyond the decent level, and they will also be out of town this season or next. But, they do have a very good, very young right side of the infield in 3B David Wright and SS Jose Reyes - as well as an above average 2B in Kaz Matsui. There are three teams in their own division alone: Philadelphia, Florida, and Atlanta; who on paper are better than them right now. Granted players on paper do not win games, but three teams with more quality is hard to overcome. Even if they add Carlos Delgado I cannot put them ahead of those other three teams in their division.

Although I do not believe that the Mets overall this season will be as big a disaster as their 2002 offseason when they added 1B Mo Vaughn, 2B Roberto Alomar, OF's Jeremy Burnitz and Roger Cedeno, and starting pitchers Pedro Astacio, Shawn Estes, and Jeff D'Amico, I do think that this seasons moves will not work out as planned as they will miss the playoffs again with the stronger teams ahead of them in their division. The Mets also better hope that Beltran doesn't turn out like the last time they signed one of the best players in MLB as a free agent going into his prime, signing Bobby Bonilla to the richest contract in history when he was just 28 years old. That deal ended badly after Bonilla floundered, will Beltran do the same?


Some of the Aftermath...

Well many teams have a whole in the OF, CF in particular, and it seems that now we can move ahead and see where some of the players are going. These are the players available either through trade or Free Agency: Jeremy Burnitz, Marlon Byrd, Eric Byrnes, Mike Cameron, Cliff Floyd, Magglio Ordonez and of course, Slammin' Sammy. Here are some teams in need of these OF's: Houston, Chicago, Milwaukee, Arizona, the Mets (if they deal their current OF's), and Baltimore. There are also some other teams with passing interest in some of these players like Tampa Bay and Pittsburg, but they both already have their respective OF set.

Burnitz says he wants to play for a contender and Arizona, Houston, and sadly the Cubs are interested in signing him. Burnitz was a pure product of Colorados thin air last season and he cannot hit like he used to back in his days with the Indians and Brewers. I hope that he does not wind up in Chicago, especially since he wants to play in CF next season. In my opinion he ends up with Houston on a one or two year deal while they wait for future OF Willy Tavaras to get ready, and it allows them to move Craig Biggio back to 2B to fill another hole they have there.

Milwaukee almost had a completed deal for Marlon Byrd earlier in the offseason and then decided to back out of it, but with Byrd back on the market I believe that they will get back into the fray and wind up with the former Philly CF. Arizona is also interested (again).

As for the other guys rumored to be going somewhere by trade, I really don't think any of them will be going anywhere, but that Floyd has the highest possibility to be playing at a new address next year.


What are the Cubs to do now...

Out of the OF options listed above, I think the best thing the Cubs can do is trade for Byrnes to fill the spot in LF. And if Corey Patterson can't get his act together and play like a real leadoff man, you can stick Byrnes there and move Corey down in the order. Will I think this will happen, probably not as the D-backs are very hot on his trail right now.

I believe that the Cubs have a shot at getting Magglio to sign a one year trial deal like the Cubs and Nomar agreed to. If he's healthy, sticking him in LF will add another power bat to this lineup as well as improve the defense in the OF slightly, as he would be a significant upgrade over Moises Alou. But again, this is only if he is healthy are rearing to go next season, otherwise signing him if there are any doubts would be a serious mistake, as the guys they are bringing up to compete for a spot, David Kelton and Jason Dubois do not seem to me to be everyday MLB material. If the Cubbies do deal Sammy, then signing a healthy Magglio to replace Sosa's production will be vital and the only possible move to make.

I don't think that the Cubs will wind up moving Sosa this offseason, as they will live with him and his mistakes next year as they have for the past 12. I do think however that GM Jim Hendry has something up his sleeve that no one is even conceiving right now. He has a past history of doing deals like this as the Derek Lee and Nomar trades were sprung out of nowhere and completed quickly. This is the path that i see Hendry going this offseason (maybe for Burnett and Encarnacion from Florida)


Big Unit already in Big Trouble...

Randy Johnson has been in New York for one day officially, and the media jackals there have already gotten to him. Although the incident doesn't seem like much, you have to remember that Johnson has never played in a market (Montreal, Seattle, Houston, Pheonix) where the attention will come down like it has already in New York. Will he be able to be himself next year, most likely, but Johnson always has seemed to be on edge with the media and it is possible that playing in New York will throw him over the edge.

Speaking of Johnson, his trade was finally completed and so were the deals that were to follow the completion of it. The Diamondbacks immediately turned catching prospect Dioner Navarro to the Dodgers along with minor league RHP prospects William Juarez, Danny Muegge, Beltran Perez for RF Shawn Green and $10 million in cash. This deal hinged on the D-backs signing Green to an extension which they did to the tune of 3yr/$32 million. That figure is a bit misleading however, as they included his $16 million dollar salary this season, added another $16 million, and restricted the amounts for this season. Instead of earning $16 million this season Green will now earn $10.5 million, as well as a $2 million signing bonus, while earning $8 million next year and $9.5 million in the final year of the deal. There is also a mutual option for the 2008 season, with a $2 million buyout.

After clearing out Shawn Green's salary for the 2005 season the Dodgers completed their signing of RHP Derek Lowe, giving him a 4yr/$36 million contract. Giving a pitcher who's ERA has escalated each of the last 3 seasons to 5.42 last year might be questionable, but winning the clinching game of each playoff series for the Red Sox last year - as well as the inflated prices that starting pitching has gone for this offseason - has really helped the value of Lowe on the open market.

Looking at the deals going on here, i seriously cannot figure out what the hell the Dodgers and Diamondbacks are doing. The Dodgers let one of the best young players in the game, a guy they developed for the last 5 years in 3B Adrian Beltre, walk away to sign an oft-injured outfielder who has never produced at the level Beltre did last season. To be fair few players have had a season like Beltre's, and Beltre himself probably won't have another season like that again, but he will come close - and that is more than J.D Drew can say. L.A. Also signs 2B Jeff Kent and 3B Jose Valentin to help offset the loss of Beltre, but in the process they dump their incumbent 2B Alex Cora, who although is only decent at the plate, is excellent in the field. Then the team trades current 1B Shawn Green for the chance that catcher Dioner Navarro will become a solid major leaguer, and the ability to sign RHP Derek Lowe. There's only one inherent problem with this; Lowe is a sinkerball pitcher; the Dodgers worsened one of the best infield defenses in the game - losing potential gold glovers at 3B and 2B, and a good defensive 1B - while replacing them with subpar fielders; this is not a good combination. Combine this with the trade at the end of last season with the Marlins breaking up the Dodgers main strength - the bullpen - and you really have to wonder what Dodger GM Paul DePodesta's final plan really is.

Now on to the D-backs. The Diamondbacks made a surprising run in 2003 finishing above .500 and developing some good young players in the process in Matt Kata, Alex Cintron, and Brandon Webb. Then this past season they traded Curt Schilling for a bunch of players and then added more players to that and traded for Richie Sexson to try and make the jump to contender. This move backfired when they couldn't replace Schilling on the mound and multiple key injuries occurred, but in the process they found another good young player in 3B Chad Tracy. So instead of taking that progress and continuing a youth movement, they blew it all up to guarantee that they will hover a bit below .500 for the next 5 years. They signed SS Royce Clayton and 2B Craig Counsell to supplant the younger players at those positions. They Overpaid for free agents RHP Russ Ortiz and 3B Troy Glaus. Ortiz is a fringe no.2 starter at best and they paid him to be their new no.1 starter. By signing Troy Glaus, an injury-plagued player, they now have to move 3B Chad Tracy to 1B, making him learn a new position in his 2nd year in the league. And that has forced the trade of Shea Hillenbrand, a 1B by trade who is decent with the glove and hits around .300 every year. However all they got from Toronto was a 25 year old pitching prospect who might be minor league filler for the next few seasons. Then they traded for RF Shawn Green(who might turn back to greatness after finally recovering from a shoulder injury the last two year) from L.A., giving up the one decent prospect that they received from the Yankees for Randy Johnson. They also signed LHP Shawn Estes to a one year deal yesterday to be their no.4 starter. You might say that leaving Colorado could lower his 5.84 ERA, until you realized that he has 7 seasons of ERA's higher than 4.92 in his career, including the last three.

Teams that are close to competing for a playoff spot sign guys like Ortiz, Glaus and Green - not teams that are supposed to be losing to rebuild their system and get young guys in the majors. Guys like Counsell and Clayton are signed to be bench players. Guys like Estes shouldn't even be signed. These players are just blocking the way for younger players in their system from coming up and getting MLB experience and letting the D-backs know if they have anything decent in their system. All these moves have done is let the team float in mediocrity for the next 3-5 years while this current crop of players gets older till they'll have to go and rebuild again just a few years down the line while blocking stud minor league OF's like Conor Jackson and Carlos Quentin (both slated to be MLB corner OF ready in by 2006 - or 2007 at the latest) from jumping up and getting playing time. The D-backs have gotten a bit better, and the Dodgers have gotten a tad worse, and the sad thing is that no one in the NL West is dominant enough to win the division outright and if things actually go their way, either of these teams is capable of sneaking into the playoffs.


The Cubs signed somebody, the Cubs signed somebody...
The Cubs signed SS Cody Ransom the other day to a minor league deal. Ransom comes over from San Francisco and will compete in spring training for the back-up infielder position, but most likely will not make the opening day roster unless someone gets hurt.

The Cubs also made a trade for LHP Stephen Randolph, acquiring him from Arizona for the infamous PTBNL (player to be named later). Last season Randolph posted a .191 opponents batting average against out of the bullpen and figures to battle minor league Wil Ohman for the 2nd lefty spot out of the 'pen for this upcoming season.

Two pretty non-descript moves for the Cubs this week and it leaves the Cubs with the same two holes they've had all offseason, a 5th starter and a LF.

Other notes...

- The Marlins and Paul LoDuca finally agreed on a new contract to avoid arbitration, signing a 3yr/$18 million deal. Although he hasn't come close to duplicating his rookie season stats, LaDuca is very adept at handling a pitching staff and has a reputation as a fiery leader in the clubhouse as well as giving you pretty good production from behind the plate.

- Arizona traded Shea Hillenbrand to the Blue Jays for pitching prospect Adam Peterson. This move may force Toronto to turn around and trade former 3B Eric Hinske, now that Hillenbrand will most likely take over 1B and new signee Corey Koskie will take over 3B. Hinske is set to make $13 million over the next three years and with the decreased production since his rookie season the birds to the north have been trying to get rid of him for awhile.

- The Jays made other news signing former White Sox pitchers Billy Koch to a 1yr/$900,000 deal and Scott Schoeneweis to a 2yr/$5.25 million deal. If Koch can ever find the arm strength he had during his tenure with Toronto and Oakland he can be an effective reliever, if not closer, again. However until he does, or if he learns how to actually pitch instead of throwing, then he will be a waste of a roster spot. Schoeneweis on the other hand will make a return to the bullpen with Toronto, hoping that he can work effectively against lefties in spot duty.

- In more D-back news, the team signed LHP Shawn Estes to a 1yr/$2.5 million deal to be their no.4 starter for the 2005 season. Estes turned down two year deals with the Nats and San Diego to sign with Arizona because he liked the idea of pitching close to his suburban Arizona home. If i were him i would have taken the 2 year guarantees. Don't let last years record fool you, Estes hasn't had a decent year since 2001 and its been 8 years since his only very good season in 1997, when he won 19 games and posted a 3.18 ERA.

- The Orioles inked former Palehose RHP James Baldwin to a minor league contract yesterday. Baldwin was never really a good pitcher, and at best only a decent one, but he was an innings eater, and Baltimore desperately needs pitching help, so maybe this could work out for him.

- The Marlins filled out their rotation bringing back 5th starter and former Cub Ismael Valdes with a 1yr/$1.5 million deal, although he will only see $750,000 of that next season.

- The Braves have according to Raul Mondesi, signed Raul Mondesi to a 1yr/$1 million deal with incentives of $700,000. Mondesi says that he turned down more money from Baltimore for the guarantee of being the starting RF in Atlanta. If Mondesi can put the various items from his past behind him, including essentially getting kicked off of two teams last season, this could be a good pick-up for Braves GM John Schurholz. Atlanta still has the LF spot to fill on their team and are rumored to be going hard after Cincinnati OF Austin Kearns.

- The Devil Rays signed former D-back OF Danny Bautista today to a 1yr deal. He will fill the OF spot left open by the injury of Rocco Baldelli until he returns and then fight for time with DH Josh Phelps.

- And finally, if any of you Cub fans wish to continue following the career of Greg Maddux valet catcher Paul Bako, then you'll need to start watching the Dodgers. Bako signed(scroll down) a 1yr/$650,000 deal with L.A. to possibly be their starter next season. Bako is a decent backup who can call a good game, but if he winds up starting for the Dodgers that position will be a black hole offensively in their lineup.