Wednesday, February 02, 2005

The more things change...

Well next season the Cubs will have a strikeout prone, pull-hitting, free-swinging, moderately walking, can't-hit-the-opposite-waying, oversized lumbering Right fielder with declining power who was once considered an above average defensive player but has fallen drastically in the last few years. Now you're telling me that the Cubs just traded Sammy Sosa to Baltimore, right?? Well I'm telling you they are about to replace him with Jeromy Burnitz, essentially a left-handed Sammy Sosa. Although he might not even be that good. Sosa put up .253, 35 HR, 80 RBI last season in 125 games, missing a quarter of the season with assorted injuries and headcase problems, while Burnitz put up .283, 37 HR, 110 RBI in 150. Not bad numbers for Burnitz, till you dig a bit deeper into his profile. Here is an exact match for the theory that guys just hit better in Colorado - his home away splits from last season: .322, 24, 68/.244,13, 42 - guess which one was put up at Coors. The road numbers he put up last year are much closer to his career average of .254, which is much more indicative of what kind of number he will be putting up this year at the Friendly Confines. Burnitz used to be a walk machine, averaging nearly 82 (or 14 more than the highest Cub last year) walks a year from 1997-2001, but the last three years he's had only a high of 58 - all while continuing his massive strikeout rate.
Example
On the defensive side of things it would appear that Burnitz is going to be a slight upgrade in Range Factor but a huge downgrade in the Zone Rating. Although Burnitz did throw out 10 baserunners last year, 5 more than Sosa, and even though he has a better arm commite more errors in the outfield. So suffice to say, despite the horrible year the former no.21 had in RF last season, Burnitz could concievably be worse - both at the plate and in the field.

If you ask me, this might be the worst move Jim Hendry has done since he took over the GM duties in the middle of the 2002 season. I have defered to his judgement in making moves since he took over because there was at least some redeeming qualities about the moves he has made to have some faith over. I'm afraid I cannot find any of that with the Signing of Jeremy Burnitz. Handing Burnitz a 1yr/$4.5 million deal with a $7 million option year seems like giving money away to me. Hendry has appeared to have a bulge in his pants for Burnitz, trying to trade for him in 2003 and 2004, and it appears that he finally has gotton his man. Whether or not this will hinder any chances that will appear later in the season for the Cubs, or if Burnitz will be a giant hole in the no.5 spot, time will tell. As for me, I think this move will turn out badly for the Cubbies.


So Long Sammy...

So the trade is finally complete. Sammy has made his last chest thumping two-fingered kiss towards the sky in a Cub uniform as the trade of him to Baltimore was finally completed with Sosa passing his physical today. I already discussed Jerry Hairston Jr., so lets look at the other two prospects they are getting in return. David Crouthers, 23, and Mike Fontenot, 24, are the two players the Cubs have recieved in return. Both are top ten prospects in the Oriole system, and Fontenot might immediately become the best Cub middle infield prospect they have. Lets start
with Fontenot.
Mike Fontenot Described out of the draft as a potential 5-tool player, he accelerated through the minors to start last season in AAA ball after two seasons. He started poorly last season in AAA and on June 12th he was hitting .234 with a .500 OPS, by the end of the season he had risen those numbers to .279 and .766 - in only two and a half months. Fontenot has a lefty stick and plays good D so far in the minors, and if he continues the success he had in the second half of his last season - he could be the starting 2B in 2006 to replace Todd Walker.

David Crouthers David Crothers is a right handed pitcher with a mid 90's fastball and good slider. He has a season and a half of AA ball under his belt, and has put up impressive strikeout ratio numbers and high WHIP numbers, the Orioles had plans of turning him into a reliever this upcoming season under the impression that his fastball and slider would be enough of a combination to get through the late innings in relief. With a slew of good young starters in the minors, and a lack of dominating relief men in the majors, the Cubs will probably have the same rational.

Although most peoples first impressions are probably that the Cubs got snookered in this deal, especially with all of the money the Cubs are paying to dump Sosa (a bit over $16 million), I have to say that the potential of these young players, plus the addition of a leadoff hitter that can play defense in LF- should sway the pendulum towards the Cubs side of things. Sosa had to go for this team to do anything next year otherwise the poor chemistry and clubhouse problems might have destroyed the team - like it did last season. So for everyone in MLB knowing the Cubs had to deal Sosa, I think Jim Hendry got a lot in return for Sosa, and hopefully these minor leaguers pan out and can help the team within the next few seasons. However, if clubhouse problems loom next season, and the Cubs dont start well despite the excise of all of the supposed bad cancers last year, you might be seeing a lot more of these. In Dusty We Trusty???


Best rumor...

That I read regarding this whole Sammy Sosa deal came out of the New York Times the other day. It stated that all of Friday morning that the rumor among baseball insiders was that the New Washington Nationals had locked up the deal for Sosa with the Cubs footing even more of the bill then they would up doing with the Orioles (all but about $2 million or so). Then a call from someone high up came down saying they couldn't allow a salary bump for the team and they had to withdraw from consideration. Then the Orioles immediatly jumped into the fray headfirst, and secured Sosa. But this reporter was questioning why the salary wasn't approved for the Sosa deal, but a 3yr/$18 million contract offer to Odalis Perez was green-lit a few weeks ago. The offices of MLB do owe some favors to Baltimore owner Peter Angelos, so is it possible they killed a deal sending Sosa to the O's new compitition?? Really makes you think about it.

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