Is Jim Hendry on Crack?....

The Cubs resigned SS Nefi Perez to a 2yr/$5 million contract the other day. 2 years and $5 million? Why don't you just give him $10 million to go away? Seriously, this is a horrible deal and Hendry should have known better than to do this. These are the kind of moves that ruin a GM and gives him excuses to not add payroll later on in the season. Don't get me wrong here, this isn't a complete indightment against the out machine Nefi Perez, I mean, he did hit into 22 double plays last year - that counts for something right? Nefi is at best a late inning defensive replacement who fills in once every two weeks durin the season. At worst he's horrible hitting starting middle infielder. Guess which one we will be privelidged to see next season.

Hendry said that he resigned Nefi to be a backup and insurance as a middle infielder but here's what Mr. DP had to say about his resigning, "It depends on what Dusty Baker and the general manager want to do with me, I think I showed them I can play every day." Sounds like a man thats intending to start next season...or else there'll be trouble (I know 'there'll is not a word). We all know exactly what Dusty's plans for Nefi will be if he gets his way so by-God, Hendry better be forceful in making Ronny Cedeno the starter for next year. Baker may agree to to initially start Ronny, but if he falters in anyway that first month I can guarantee you that Nefi will be starting the rest of the year, and probably ruining the top of the lineup as well.

At worst next season, the starting middle infield will be Nefi and Todd Walker. At best, Furcal and Cedeno. I cannot get over how much this signing scares me though. Does Hendry not think Furcal will sign with them? If Nefi was signed to be a backup, they seriously overpaid. It's a scenario thats just begging to give Dusty and excuse to start Perez, and I dont like it one bit.


It's like money in the Bank....

Free Agency will be upon us in about 3 hours and the market this season appears to be weaker overall than others, but that really doesn't matter to the Cubs as thier needs can be more than amply filled. Need a SS? How about Rafeal Furcal. Need a Leadoff Hitter? Furcal again. Need a Lefthanded power OF bat? How about Brian Giles or Hideki Matsui. Need a dominant set-up man? How about B.J Ryan. Now that looks like an offseason haul that the Cubs could realistically accomplish...if they weren't the Cubs. Although they could more than afford all three they will most likely go after one (Furcal) and claim they did all they could to sign the others. I see them (and hope they don't) going cheapie on getting another OF and frankly it would be a said situation if they did. Let's take a look at the Cubs current payroll, counting each player on a rookie contract as $500,000 and estimating arbitration numbers.

Kerry Wood ($) 12,000,000
Aramis Ramirez 10,500,000
Greg Maddux 9,000,000
Derek Lee 8,670,000
Carlos Zambrano 5,500,000* (est.)
Ryan Dempster 5,000,000
Michael Barrett 4,000,000
Corey Patterson 3,500,000* (est.)
Jerry Hairston 3,200,000* (est.)
Scott Williamson 3,000,000
Glendon Rusch 3,000,000
Mark Prior 2,500,000
Nefi Perez 2,500,000
Todd Walker 2,500,000
Henry Blanco 1,500,000
Ronny Cedeno 500,000
Adam Greenberg 500,000
Matt Murton 500,000
Roberto Novoa 500,000
Will Ohman 500,000
Jerome Williams 500,000
Michael Wuertz 500,000
___________
Total $ 79,870,000


Now this total is squed a bit high as those rookies will not make that much and the arbitration figures might actually be lower as I used a high-end estimation. Also Jim Hendry has stated that he only picked up Todd Walkers option to deal him so were actually looking at around $75,000,000 for a current payroll heading into next season. The Tribune is saying they want to commit around $100,000,000 in salary leaving $25 mil to sign a SS, a RF, a backup OF or INF who can hit for power, and another piece of the bullpen. Seems pretty reasonable to me to aquire the guys mentioned above.

In all honesty I think that the Cubs will land Furcal for between $8-10 mil a year. They need a SS and a leadoff man, and Furcal can fill both of those needs. He has to be priority no.1 for Trader Jim this offseason and everything seems to indicate that's true. The only teams mentioned for Furcal so far in the rumor mill has been Atlanta, the Cubs, and the Mets - but I cannot see him moving to 2nd base to play in Flushing. He has the best arm in the league and is an above average defender. He can get on base and steal them as well. Coupled with Cedeno at 2nd, the Gold Glover Lee and first, and a competent Aramis the Cubs would have thier best infield defense since the Shawon-o-meter donned the bleachers. Atlanta seems poised to let him go as thier unbelievable development system has people in place to take over his spot as well as the fact that they are trying to reduce payroll again this offseason. (It's unbelievable what they do down there - it must be something they put in thier Coke)

As for getting a RF, this is a different story. I cannot stop this nagging feeling that Hendry is going to bring back Jer-O-my Burnitz at a reduced price for the upcoming season. How he could do it after last year I don't know, but I just cannot shake that feeling. If they go after Matsui or Giles they're going to have to pay at least $9 mil a year for them, probably more. Matsui will require a longer contract but he has less power, onbase percentage, and defensive ability than Giles - but is 3 years older. However all of this is a moot point if Matsui resigns with Yankees before November 15th (as he must be released by then according to his previous contract, making him a free agent). Another positive of signing Giles would be to keep him away from St. Louis, who has shown serious interest in him with the retirement of Larry Walker.

As for the bullpen help, what they really need here is a dominant set-up man. B.J. Ryan fits that bill perfectly, but are the Cubs willing to spend as much or more on Ryan than closer Ryan Dempster? Probably not. But Ryan has said that he'd rather play for a contender, make less and set-up than close for a ton of money on a crappy team so there is hope. Maybe Hendry can look at former Mets closer Brandon Looper or former Astros and A's closer Octavial Dotel, who is coming off of reconstrucive elbow surgery last season and could be got for the Dempster/Williamson deal. Or maybe someone who can get lefties out like Mike Myers? He would come on the cheap so if he doesn't work out they can get rid of him easily. This will probably be the direction the team goes.

A power guy off the bench. Please, thats almost impossible to find. However there are a couple of guys who could be pinewarmers with some pop. Bobby Higginson, the immortal Jose Hernandez, Travis Lee, Julio Franco, Ruben Sierra, Wes Helms, Robert Fick, and John Mabry are the cream of this crop. You might be able to convince people like Rich Aurilia or Tino Martinez or Rondell White to take a bench role, but you probably won't. I like the idea of signing a guy like Higginson or Mabry would be good as they are lefty guys with pop who can play 1B and the OF.


Trade-ho.....

Rumours are swirling that the Cubs and Marlins are putting together a deal where the principals are Cpatt and Juan Pierre. Adding a guy to the team to hit leadoff is a giant positive, especially if they can get Furcal as the 1-2 top of the order would be outstanding. However this would also really weaken an already average overall outfield defense. Is hitting Pierre-Furcal at the top with the downgrade in defense better than a Furcal-Murton one-two? I'm not sure on either account.


Nomar coming back....

It appears that discussions are going on between Jim Hendry and Nomar Garciaparra's agent about him possibly coming back next season...if he will move to an OF position. Nomar as the Cubs starting RF, probably not, but anything is possible and not always for the better.


Can we get a pitcher please....

And finally Congradulations to the Cubs and prospects Jermaine Van Buren and Ricky Nolasco as they made Baseball America's Minor League postseason All-Star teams. Van Buren was the 1st team closer while Nolasco was one of 4 starters on the second team. Van Buren did his work at AAA Iowa last season and has been pretty dominant the last two years in the minors after the Cubs plucked him from the Independent leagues and made him a closer. If the Cubs don't sign anyone this offseason for the bullpen he will most likely get the final spot, or at least a head start in the competition for it.

Nolasco is still a couple of years away as he did his bidding at AA West Tennessee this past season. Although his BAA was a bit high at .245, he posted excellent numbers with 173 K's in 162 inn, with only 46 walks. His ERA was also stellar at 2.89. Hopefully he fullfils his potential as rotation spots will start to open up in the next few years at the major league level.